中間餾分油和柴油期貨的價(jià)格在最近幾周大幅上漲，超過了布倫特油價(jià)的漲幅

在美國，包括柴油在內(nèi)的餾分油庫存已低于正常水平

由于原油和燃料油供應(yīng)趨緊，煉油利潤率在最近幾周也有所提高

據(jù)油價(jià)網(wǎng)2023年8月22日?qǐng)?bào)道，盡管美國和歐洲經(jīng)濟(jì)放緩，強(qiáng)勁反彈也不盡如人意，但全球柴油市場供應(yīng)依然緊張，并將以低于平均水平的庫存進(jìn)入收割和采暖季節(jié)。

最近幾周，中間餾分油和柴油期貨價(jià)格大幅上漲，超過了布倫特原油價(jià)格的漲幅。布倫特原油價(jià)格已從此前的每桶75美元—80美元區(qū)間升至80美元—85美元區(qū)間。

在美國和歐洲中間餾分油庫存處于季節(jié)性低位之際，投資組合經(jīng)理和投機(jī)者越來越多地押注柴油價(jià)格上漲，而這通常是發(fā)生在供暖季之前庫存增加的時(shí)候。

柴油庫存雖然沒有去年同期那么低，但仍遠(yuǎn)低于歷史平均水平，這表明煉油廠停產(chǎn)、需求強(qiáng)于預(yù)期或冬季變冷導(dǎo)致的供應(yīng)減少，可能會(huì)使餾分油市場進(jìn)一步陷入短缺，推高價(jià)格，并再次對(duì)商品走勢和通脹構(gòu)成壓力。

柴油庫存低于正常水平

在美國，包括柴油在內(nèi)的餾分油庫存已低于正常水平。

美國能源信息署(EIA)上周在其備受關(guān)注的最新每周石油庫存報(bào)告表示，在8月11日當(dāng)周，美國餾分油庫存增加30萬桶。目前美國餾分油庫存比5年同期平均水平低16%左右。EIA數(shù)據(jù)顯示，餾分油需求低于去年同期，但近幾周美國餾分油總產(chǎn)量也呈下降趨勢。

分析師表示，在歐洲，阿姆斯特丹-鹿特丹-安特衛(wèi)普(ARA)石油交易中心獨(dú)立持有的柴油類庫存看起來也相當(dāng)緊張。

咨詢公司FGE周五在一份報(bào)告中稱，全球范圍內(nèi)，除亞洲以外的所有地區(qū)上周都增加了中間餾分油庫存，盡管現(xiàn)貨溢價(jià)過高阻礙了庫存的增加。

FGE表示：“盡管近幾周庫存基本呈橫盤走勢，但每周的跌幅越來越低于一年中同期的歷史區(qū)間，這給已經(jīng)很高的中間餾分油價(jià)格帶來了上行壓力。”

荷蘭國際集團(tuán)(ING)策略師帕特森和曼塞特周一在一份報(bào)告中寫道：“市場似乎擔(dān)心的是，中東地區(qū)的輕油庫存看起來仍然相當(dāng)緊張，而隨著冬季的臨近，我們還沒有開始看到庫存增加。”

看漲資金押注柴油價(jià)格上升

由于庫存下降，對(duì)沖基金今年夏天越來越看好餾分油。荷蘭國際集團(tuán)援引的交易所數(shù)據(jù)顯示，上周歐洲洲際交易所(ICE)汽油凈多頭頭寸(看漲與看跌頭寸之差)增加5703手，至93941手。這是自去年3月以來歐洲最大的輕油期貨凈多頭頭寸。

在大西洋彼岸，紐約港交割的超低硫柴油凈多頭頭寸在8月初也觸及18個(gè)月高點(diǎn)。

分析人士預(yù)計(jì)，美國和歐洲的柴油市場將供不應(yīng)求。

咨詢公司伍德麥肯茲的煉油和成品油市場研究分析師豪舍姆告訴彭博社記者：“在我們目前的預(yù)測中，歐洲柴油/輕油供應(yīng)的前景是緊張的，原因是輕質(zhì)原油的柴油/輕油產(chǎn)量預(yù)期較低且轉(zhuǎn)向航空燃料產(chǎn)量，以及計(jì)劃外的煉油廠停產(chǎn)。”

豪舍姆補(bǔ)充說：“預(yù)計(jì)到11月份，柴油需求將逐月增長。”

煉油利潤猛增

由于原油和燃料油供應(yīng)趨緊，近幾周煉油利潤率也有所上升，原因是歐佩克+聯(lián)盟和沙特阿拉伯將大部分中等含硫原油從市場上扣留，導(dǎo)致餾分油產(chǎn)量下降，中等含硫原油是加工成柴油的理想選擇。

國際能源署(IEA)在其8月份月度報(bào)告中稱，預(yù)計(jì)8月份全球煉油日產(chǎn)能將達(dá)到8390萬桶的夏季峰值，比5月份日增240萬桶，比去年同期日增260萬桶。

“成品油產(chǎn)量的增加未能緩解成品油市場的緊張，將汽油和中間餾分油的裂解利潤推至接近歷史高位。”IEA表示。

IEA指出，汽油和柴油市場的吃緊已將煉油利潤率推到6個(gè)月高位。

“額外的重質(zhì)含硫原油供應(yīng)將使煉油商能夠提振煉油活動(dòng)，并有助于緩解成品油市場的緊張局勢。但如果該集團(tuán)維持目前的目標(biāo)，石油庫存可能會(huì)在今年第三季度日減220萬桶，在第四季度日減120萬桶，這可能會(huì)推高油價(jià)。”

由于經(jīng)合組織經(jīng)濟(jì)體的柴油庫存低于5年平均水平，美國經(jīng)濟(jì)軟著陸，歐洲沒有出現(xiàn)重大經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退，而經(jīng)濟(jì)表現(xiàn)不佳區(qū)域的復(fù)蘇，可能為今年晚些時(shí)候的另一輪柴油牛市奠定基礎(chǔ)。 

李峻 譯自 油價(jià)網(wǎng)

原文如下：

Traders Are Betting On A Tightening Global Diesel Market

·     The prices of middle distillates and diesel futures have jumped in recent weeks, outpacing the increase in Brent crude oil prices.

·     Distillate stocks, which include diesel, are lower than normal in the United States.

·     Reflecting tighter supply of crude and fuels, refining margins have also strengthened in recent weeks.

Despite the economic slowdown in the U.S. and Europe and a failed strong rebound in China, the diesel market globally is tight and set to enter the crop and heating seasons with lower-than-average inventories.  

The prices of middle distillates and diesel futures have jumped in recent weeks, outpacing the increase in Brent crude oil prices, which have moved into the $80-85 a barrel bandwidth from the previous range of $75-80. 

Portfolio managers and speculators are increasingly betting on higher diesel prices amid seasonally low inventories of middle distillates in the United States and Europe, at a time when stocks typically build ahead of the heating season. 

Diesel inventories are not as low as they were at this time last year, but they are still well below historical averages, suggesting that reduced supply due to refinery outages, stronger-than-expected demand, or a colder winter could tip the distillate market further into deficit, stoking up prices and weighing – again – on the movement of goods and inflation. 

Lower-Than-Usual Diesel Stocks

Distillate stocks, which include diesel, are lower than normal in the United States. 

In the week ending August 11, distillate fuel inventories in the U.S. increased by 300,000 barrels, the Energy Information Administration said in its latest closely-watched weekly petroleum inventory report last week. Distillate fuel stocks are currently around 16% below the five-year average for this time of the year. Distillate demand has been lower than at this time last year, but total U.S. distillate production has also trended lower in recent weeks, EIA data show. 

In Europe, diesel-type inventories independently-held at the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) oil trading hub are also looking quite tight, analysts say. 

Globally, middle distillate stocks built last week in all regions apart from ARA, despite steep backwardation discouraging stockbuilding, consultancy FGE said in a note on Friday.  

“Although stocks have been moving largely sideways in recent weeks, they are falling increasingly below the historical range for the time of year each week, putting upwards pressure on already high middle distillate cracks,” FGE said. 

ING strategists Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey wrote in a note on Monday, 

“The market appears to be concerned about the fact that ARA gasoil inventories are still looking quite tight and we are yet to start seeing a build in inventories as we edge closer towards the start of winter.”  

Bullish Bets On Diesel Rise 

As a result of lower inventories, hedge funds have been increasingly bullish on distillates this summer. The net long position – the difference between bullish and bearish bets – on ICE gasoil in Europe rose by 5,703 lots to 93,941 lots last week, per exchange data cited by ING. This was the biggest net long position on gasoil futures in Europe since March 2022.

Across the Atlantic, the net long position on ultra-low sulfur diesel delivered in New York Harbor, ULSD NY NYMEX, also hit the highest in 18 months earlier in August. 

Analysts expect a tight diesel market ahead in the U.S. and Europe. 

“The outlook for Europe diesel/gasoil supply is tight in our current forecast, driven by the lower diesel/gasoil yields expected from lighter crude slates, the shift to jet yields, and unplanned refinery outages,” Emma Howsham, a research analyst for refining and oil product markets at consultancy Wood Mackenzie, told Bloomberg.

“Demand is expected to increase month-on-month to November,” Howsham added. 

Refining Margins Jump 

Reflecting tighter supply of crude and fuels, refining margins have also strengthened in recent weeks, due to lower distillate yields as OPEC+ and Saudi Arabia are withholding mostly medium sour crude grades from the market, which are ideal for processing into diesel.  

Global refinery throughputs are expected to reach a summer peak of 83.9 million barrels per day (bpd) this month, up by 2.4 million bpd since May and 2.6 million bpd higher than a year ago, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said in its monthly report for August. 

“The increase in refined product output has failed to ease product market tightness, pushing gasoline and middle distillate cracks to near record-highs,” IEA said. 

Tight gasoline and diesel markets have pushed margins to six-month highs, the agency noted. 

“Additional supplies of heavy sour crude would allow refiners to boost activity and help ease product market tensions. But if the bloc’s current targets are maintained, oil inventories could draw by 2.2 mb/d in 3Q23 and 1.2 mb/d in the fourth quarter, with a risk of driving prices still higher.” 

With diesel inventories in OECD economies below five-year averages, a soft landing of the U.S. economy, no major recessions in Europe, and a recovery in the underwhelming area's economic performance could set the stage for another diesel bull run later this year.