國(guó)際能源署(IEA)認(rèn)為，受亞洲消費(fèi)增長(zhǎng)的推動(dòng)，今年全球石油日需求量將達(dá)到創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄的1.019億桶

超過(guò)一半的全球石油需求增長(zhǎng)將由亞洲推動(dòng)，非經(jīng)合組織國(guó)家將占到總增長(zhǎng)的87%

石油供應(yīng)可能難以跟上需求的增長(zhǎng)，尤其是在歐佩克+意外減產(chǎn)之后

據(jù)油價(jià)網(wǎng)2023年4月14日?qǐng)?bào)道，國(guó)際能源署(IEA)周五表示，盡管隨著持續(xù)加息對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的擔(dān)憂，但受消費(fèi)復(fù)蘇的推動(dòng)，今年全球石油日需求量仍將達(dá)到創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄的1.019億桶。

IEA在4月份的石油市場(chǎng)報(bào)告中表示，受亞洲經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇的推動(dòng)，今年全球石油日需求量預(yù)計(jì)將增加200萬(wàn)桶，日需求量將達(dá)到創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄的1.019億桶。

這一估計(jì)數(shù)字與3月份的石油市場(chǎng)報(bào)告持平。

然而，發(fā)達(dá)經(jīng)濟(jì)體和新興市場(chǎng)的石油需求增長(zhǎng)之間的差距將會(huì)擴(kuò)大。IEA指出，以亞洲大國(guó)為首的非經(jīng)合組織國(guó)家將占全球石油需求增長(zhǎng)的近90%。

另一方面，經(jīng)合組織近幾個(gè)月的需求一直不佳，疲軟的工業(yè)活動(dòng)和溫暖的天氣導(dǎo)致今年第一季度經(jīng)合組織的石油日消費(fèi)量比去年同期減少39萬(wàn)桶。今年第一季度的需求下降是經(jīng)合組織國(guó)家連續(xù)第二個(gè)季度需求下降。

IEA表示：“受氣候變暖和工業(yè)活動(dòng)低迷的影響，盡管近幾個(gè)月發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家的石油需求表現(xiàn)平平，但亞洲大國(guó)和其他非經(jīng)合組織國(guó)家的需求強(qiáng)勁增長(zhǎng)，正在有力抵消這一影響。”IEA對(duì)亞洲石油需求增長(zhǎng)保持樂(lè)觀展望。

來(lái)自亞洲的強(qiáng)勁需求使第一季度全球石油日需求同比增長(zhǎng)81萬(wàn)桶，達(dá)到1.004億桶。

IEA表示：“受亞洲大國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)和國(guó)際旅游業(yè)持續(xù)復(fù)蘇的推動(dòng)，預(yù)計(jì)到今年年底，全球石油日需求量將大幅增加270萬(wàn)桶。”

IEA稱，總體而言，今年全年，全球石油日需求量將增加200萬(wàn)桶，非經(jīng)合組織國(guó)家將占增長(zhǎng)的87%，僅亞洲大國(guó)就占全球增長(zhǎng)的一半以上。

IEA表示，石油供應(yīng)可能難以趕上這一增長(zhǎng)，尤其是在歐佩克+意外減產(chǎn)之后，這可能會(huì)加劇預(yù)計(jì)今年晚些時(shí)候出現(xiàn)的供應(yīng)短缺。

李峻 編譯自 油價(jià)網(wǎng)

原文如下：

IEA Sees Global Oil Demand Hitting Record High In 2023

·     The IEA sees global oil demand hitting a record high of 101.9 million barrels per day this year, driven by rising Asian consumption.

·     More than half of the global demand growth increase will be driven by Asia, with Non-OECD countries set to account for 87% of growth in total.

·     Supply may struggle to keep up with this demand growth, especially after the surprise OPEC+ cut.

Despite concerns about economic growth with the ongoing interest rate hikes, global oil demand is still set for a record high 101.9 million barrels per day (bpd) this year, driven by a resurgent Asian consumption, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Friday.

Buoyed by a resurgent Asia, world oil demand is set for growth of 2 million bpd this year, to hit a record 101.9 million bpd, the IEA said in its Oil Market Report for April today.  

The estimate remains unchanged from last month’s report.

Yet, there will be a widening disparity between demand growth in developed economies and in emerging markets. Non-OECD countries, led by Asia, are set to account for nearly 90% of demand growth, the IEA noted.

OECD demand, on the other hand, has been underwhelming in recent months, and weak industrial activity and warm weather led to OECD consumption shrinking by 390,000 bpd in the first quarter of 2023 compared to the same period of 2022. The decline in Q1 2023 was the second consecutive quarter of falling demand in OECD countries.

“While oil demand in developed nations has underwhelmed in recent months, slowed by warmer weather and sluggish industrial activity, robust gains in Asia and other non-OECD countries are providing a strong offset,” the IEA said, keeping its upbeat outlook on Asian oil demand growth.

Solid demand from Asia raised global oil demand by 810,000 bpd year-on-year in the first quarter to 100.4 million bpd.  

“A much stronger increase of 2.7 mb/d is expected through year-end, propelled by a continued recovery in Asia and international travel,” the IEA said.  

Overall, world oil demand will grow by 2 million bpd for the full year of 2023, with the non-OECD accounting for 87% of the growth and Asia alone making up more than half the global increase, according to the agency.

Supply could struggle to catch up with this growth, especially after the surprise OPEC+ cuts, which risk exacerbating a supply deficit expected later this year, the IEA said.