據油價網7月3日報道， 國際能源署（IEA）的負責人表示，能源價格可能在今年冬季再次上漲，可能迫使政府對消費進行補貼。

亞洲大國的經濟復蘇和北半球的嚴冬有可能導致能源需求攀升。

國際能源署的警告呼應了德國能源監管機構最近的信息，即能源危機尚未結束。

國際能源署負責人法蒂赫·比羅爾警告稱，能源價格可能在今年冬季再次飆升。

在接受英國廣播公司（BBC）采訪時，法蒂赫·比羅爾表示，如果亞洲經濟從疫情中的恢復并在今年晚些時候加速，而且北半球的冬季比去年更嚴寒，那么價格將會上漲。

如果發生這種情況，政府將需要再次介入，對能源消費進行補貼。

比羅爾告訴BBC說：“在亞洲大國經濟非常強勁、大量購買市場上的能源，并且我們有一個嚴寒的冬季的情況下，我們可能會看到天然氣價格出現強勁的上行壓力，進而給消費者增加額外負擔。”

此外，比羅爾表示，他不能排除冬季出現停電的可能性，這可能是“游戲的一部分”。

上個月，德國能源監管機構負責人克勞斯·穆勒對2023/2024年冬季發出了類似的警告。克勞斯·穆勒在接受當地媒體采訪時表示，歐洲的能源危機尚未結束，如果冬季寒冷，供應可能無法滿足需求。

穆勒在六月初對路透社表示：“就存儲（罐）設施而言，我們現在與去年處于不同的水平......但最大的因素仍然是天氣。”他補充說：“能源危機尚未結束。”

亞洲大國仍然是今年余下時間內將影響能源價格的最重要因素。

但是在政府支持的幫助下，工業活動可能加速，這將推高所有買家的價格。

加上去年異常溫暖冬季的不太可能重現以及能源價格和供應的不確定性，情況變得更加不確定。

胡耀東 譯自 油價網

原文如下：

IEA Warns Of A Spike In Energy Prices This Winter

The head of the International Energy Agency has said that energy prices could rise again this winter, potentially forcing governments to subsidize consumption.

A combination of the Asian biggest country economic recovery and a harsh winter in the northern hemisphere has the potential to send energy demand climbing.

The warning from the IEA echoes the recent message from Germany’s energy regulator that the energy crisis isn’t over yet.

Energy prices could spike again this winter, the head of the International Energy Agency has warned.

Speaking to the BBC, Fatih Birol said that if the Asian biggest country economic recovery from the pandemic accelerated later this year and the winter in the northern hemisphere was harsher than last year’s, prices would rise.

If that happens, governments would need to step in again and subsidize energy consumption, he said.

"In a scenario where the Chinese economy is very strong, buys a lot of energy from the markets, and we have a harsh winter, we may see strong upward pressure under natural gas prices, which in turn will put an extra burden on consumers," Birol told the BBC.

What’s more, Birol said he could not rule out blackouts in the winter, which could be “part of the game”.

Last month, the head of Germany’s energy regulator issued a similar warning for winter 2023/24. Speaking to local media, Klaus Mueller said the energy crisis in Europe was not over yet and if the winter was cold, supply could fall short of demand.

"When it comes to storage (tank) filling, we are now at a different level to last year ... But the biggest factor remains the weather," Mueller said in early June, as quoted by Reuters. "The energy crisis is not over yet," he added.

The Asian biggest country remains the single biggest factor that will influence energy prices for the remainder of the year. 

But industrial activity might yet accelerate with the help of government support, and this would push prices higher for all buyers.

Add to this the doubtful likelihood of a repeat of last year’s unusually warm winter and the potential for energy price—and supply—uncertainty rises significantly.