據(jù)管道&天然氣雜志網(wǎng)6月5日報道，據(jù)分析師周一表示，美國原油出口已接近3月觸及的歷史高位，下個月應(yīng)會進(jìn)一步受到沙特阿拉伯大幅減產(chǎn)的提振，并指出這也將進(jìn)一步耗盡一直徘徊在歷史低點附近的美國原油庫存。

石油生產(chǎn)國組織歐佩克事實上的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人沙特阿拉伯周日表示，7月份將減產(chǎn)約10%，即100萬桶/日，至900萬桶/日。其表示，可能會維持減產(chǎn)，以支持因擔(dān)心潛在經(jīng)濟衰退而下跌的油價。

據(jù)分析師表示，此舉為美國和拉丁美洲對歐洲和亞洲的石油出口小幅增加打開了大門，并讓美國生產(chǎn)商重新相信，如果經(jīng)濟衰退導(dǎo)致需求下降，沙特將提供一個價格底線。

數(shù)據(jù)提供商Kpler的石油分析師馬特·史密斯表示，這應(yīng)該激勵美國出口增加，鑒于夏季煉油活動即將達(dá)到峰值，美國出口似乎將面臨下行壓力。

因極具競爭力的美國價格提升了需求，美國3月份的石油出口達(dá)到了歷史最高水平的450萬桶/日。出口約占美國產(chǎn)量的三分之一，盡管該國原油庫存已降至8.15億桶的低點附近。

沙特阿拉伯在5月早些時候?qū)嵤┝?0萬桶/日的減產(chǎn)后，愿意深化減產(chǎn)，這將影響沙特的出口，而沙特的出口通常在夏季下降。

紐約桑基研究公司（Sankey Research）的獨立分析師保羅·桑基(Paul Sankey)表示，重要的是，他們在夏季沙特國內(nèi)需求達(dá)到頂峰時減產(chǎn)，這意味著他們將削減出口。

該消息傳出后，美國石油基準(zhǔn)CLc1和全球布倫特原油基準(zhǔn)分別上漲約1美元/桶。周一，布倫特原油LCOc1的交易價格約為77.28美元，低于沙特阿拉伯為其政府預(yù)算提供資金所需的每桶約80美元。

美國頁巖油產(chǎn)量全年都在小幅上升，預(yù)計本月將達(dá)到571萬桶/天。但其相對緩慢的增長速度使美國基本上不在歐佩克對最新減產(chǎn)的考慮范圍之內(nèi)。

得克薩斯州頁巖公司Tall City Exploration的首席執(zhí)行官Mike Oestmann表示，歐佩克的“決定支持近期小幅提價，并可能使長期提價提前一點”。并補充道，但（對鉆探的）近期影響充其量是中等的。

然而，過去幾個月，產(chǎn)能大國產(chǎn)量和出口的不確定性、高運費以及WTI和布倫特原油價格之間的窄幅價差削弱了美國原油出口的經(jīng)濟性，可能會限制出口。

郝芬 譯自 管道&天然氣雜志網(wǎng)

原文如下：

US Crude Oil Exports to Gain Tail Winds from Saudi July Output Cut

U.S. crude oil exports, already running close to a record level hit in March, should get a further boost next month from deep production cuts in Saudi Arabia, analysts said on Monday, noting that this will also further deplete U.S. crude inventories, which have been hovering near historic lows.

Saudi Arabia, de facto leader of oil producer group OPEC, said on Sunday it would drop its production by about 10%, or 1 million barrels per day (bpd), to 9 million bpd in July. It said it might sustain the cut to support oil prices that have dropped due to worries about a potential economic recession.

The move opens the door for modest gains in U.S. and Latin American shipments to Europe and Asia, analysts said, and gives U.S. producers new confidence that Saudi Arabia will provide a price floor should a recession clip demand.

"This could and should incentivize higher U.S. exports, which were looking like they would be under downward pressure given the looming peak of summer refining activity," said Matt Smith, an oil analyst at data provider Kpler.

U.S. oil exports touched a record 4.5 million bpd in March with China's growing oil purchases and competitive U.S. pricing lifting demand. The exports are about a third of U.S. production, even as the country's crude oil stocks are down near the low levels recorded at 815 million barrels.

Saudi Arabia's willingness to deepen its output cuts — after an earlier 500,000 bpd trim effective in May — will dig into the Kingdom's exports, which typically fall in summer.

"It's significant that they cut in summer (when) Saudi domestic demand is at a peak. To me, it says they'll cut exports," said Paul Sankey, an independent analyst at Sankey Research in New York.

U.S. oil benchmark CLc1 and global Brent benchmark each climbed about $1 per barrel on the news. Brent LCOc1 traded at about $77.28 on Monday, below the about $80 per barrel that Saudi Arabia needs to fund its government budget.

U.S. shale oil production has been inching higher all year and is forecast to hit 5.71 million bpd this month. But its relatively slow rate of growth has left the U.S. largely out of OPEC's calculations for the latest cuts.

OPEC's "decision supports some modest price increase near term and may bring that long term increase forward a bit," said Mike Oestmann, chief executive of Tall City Exploration, a Texas shale firm. "But the near-term impact (on drilling) is moderate at best," he added.

Uncertainty around the largger producer's output and exports, high freight rates and a narrow spread between WTI and Brent prices that weakened the economics of shipping U.S. crude abroad in the last couple of months could, however, limit exports.