據(jù)美國(guó)鉆井網(wǎng)站2022年9月8日?qǐng)?bào)道，挪威著名能源研究和商業(yè)情報(bào)公司雷斯塔能源公司（Rystad）的研究結(jié)果顯示，今年全球石油和天然氣勘探活動(dòng)將步履維艱，由于油氣行業(yè)努力擺脫疫情和隨后的石油市場(chǎng)崩盤(pán)的影響，今年獲得勘探許可證的區(qū)塊數(shù)量和總探區(qū)面積降至接近歷史低點(diǎn)。  

截至今年8月份，全球僅完成21輪油氣勘探許可證出售招標(biāo)，占去年前8個(gè)月舉行的42輪招標(biāo)的一半。今年迄今為止授予的探區(qū)總面積已縮減至32萬(wàn)平方公里，為20年來(lái)的最低水平。Rystad解釋說(shuō)，今年全球預(yù)計(jì)將啟動(dòng)44輪油氣勘探許可證出售招標(biāo)，比去年減少14輪，是2000年以來(lái)的最低水平。  

近幾年來(lái)，全球油氣勘探活動(dòng)支出一直在下降，油氣公司試圖通過(guò)專(zhuān)注于核心生產(chǎn)資產(chǎn)和產(chǎn)量有保障的地區(qū)來(lái)限制風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，旨在簡(jiǎn)化運(yùn)營(yíng)，并在市場(chǎng)不確定性和衰退威脅下建立更有彈性的業(yè)務(wù)。 

政治形勢(shì)也導(dǎo)致了油氣勘探許可證出售招標(biāo)的減少，許多政府暫停或停止此類(lèi)招標(biāo)，并鼓勵(lì)油氣公司在已授出的區(qū)塊內(nèi)結(jié)束油氣勘探活動(dòng)。這一趨勢(shì)可能會(huì)持續(xù)下去，因?yàn)楦鲊?guó)政府不那么熱衷于投資化石燃料生產(chǎn)，而是放眼于未來(lái)的凈零排放。

Rystad分析部門(mén)副總裁Aatisha Mahajan表示：“近幾年來(lái)，全球油氣勘探活動(dòng)一直處于下降趨勢(shì)，甚至在疫情和石油市場(chǎng)崩盤(pán)之前，這種趨勢(shì)似乎將在今年和以后繼續(xù)下去。油氣公司不愿意承擔(dān)在環(huán)境或政治敏感地區(qū)進(jìn)行新勘探作業(yè)所帶來(lái)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。”

陸上油氣勘探部門(mén)是導(dǎo)致可授予探區(qū)面積下降的重要因素。許可證出售招標(biāo)授予的陸上探區(qū)總面積已從2019年的56萬(wàn)平方公里大幅下降到今年迄今為止的僅11.5萬(wàn)平方公里。海上探區(qū)總面積在2019年達(dá)到高點(diǎn)以后在2020年急劇下降，隨后在過(guò)去兩年保持相對(duì)平穩(wěn)。

今年，美國(guó)和澳大利亞完成的油氣勘探許可證出售次數(shù)大幅下降。到目前為止，這些國(guó)家今年總共舉行了5輪油氣勘探許可證出售招標(biāo)——美國(guó)和澳大利亞各1輪——低于去年前8個(gè)月的17輪招標(biāo)（美國(guó)5輪，澳大利亞4輪等）。 美國(guó)許可證出售招標(biāo)次數(shù)下降的主要原因是，墨西哥灣和阿拉斯加州庫(kù)克灣的259和261宗許可證出售招標(biāo)分別被取消。

亞洲地區(qū)的油氣勘探許可證出售招標(biāo)情況與此相反，馬來(lái)西亞、印度尼西亞、印度和巴基斯坦的許可證出售招標(biāo)活動(dòng)和出售區(qū)塊數(shù)量有所增加。全球油氣勘探許可證發(fā)放數(shù)量的減少直接影響了已授出的探區(qū)面積，今年1月至8月期間，只有大約32萬(wàn)平方公里的歷史最低水平。

油氣勘探許可證出售活動(dòng)的減少導(dǎo)致產(chǎn)能大國(guó)獲得的勘探面積大幅下降，比一年前下降了90%，至9000平方公里，而非洲獲得的油氣勘探許可證面積下降了70%，僅為4.6萬(wàn)平方公里，主要分布在安哥拉、埃及、摩洛哥和津巴布韋，這是今年迄今為止唯一授出新油氣勘探區(qū)塊的4個(gè)非洲國(guó)家。 

另一方面，今年1月至8月，亞洲地區(qū)的新油田開(kāi)發(fā)面積比去年同期增長(zhǎng)了近4倍，而南美地區(qū)的新油田開(kāi)發(fā)面積則增長(zhǎng)了140%。

巴西是全球今年迄今為止授出油氣勘探區(qū)塊最多的國(guó)家，在第三輪油氣區(qū)塊出售招標(biāo)中授出了59個(gè)區(qū)塊。 歐洲石油巨頭殼牌公司和道達(dá)爾能源公司分別獲得了6個(gè)區(qū)塊和2個(gè)區(qū)塊。位于圖卡諾盆地、圣埃斯皮里圖盆地、波蒂瓜爾盆地、雷康卡沃盆地和塞爾希培阿拉戈斯盆地剩余的51個(gè)陸上區(qū)塊被區(qū)域公司3R石油公司（6個(gè)區(qū)塊）、NTF（2個(gè)）、Petro Victory能源公司（19個(gè)）、Origem能源公司（18個(gè)）、Imetame能源公司（3個(gè)）、Petroborn Oleo公司（2個(gè)）和CE Engenharia公司(1個(gè)）收購(gòu)。  

在巴西之后，挪威在去年挪威大陸架預(yù)定區(qū)域APA招標(biāo)中獲得了54份新許可證，印度在第6輪和 第7輪OLAP招標(biāo)中獲得了29個(gè)區(qū)塊，哈薩克斯坦在第4輪石油和天然氣區(qū)塊招標(biāo)中獲得了11個(gè)區(qū)塊。  

1月至8月期間，非洲也有一些零星的招標(biāo)活動(dòng)，埃及提供了9個(gè)區(qū)塊的勘探權(quán)，安哥拉提供了兩個(gè)區(qū)塊。南美洲烏拉圭也進(jìn)行了海上油氣勘探許可證出售招標(biāo)。 

李峻 編譯自 美國(guó)鉆井網(wǎng)站

原文如下：

Global Oil And Gas Licensing Falls To All-Time Lows

Global oil and gas exploration is set to falter this year as the number of licensed blocks and total acreage fall to near all-time lows as the sector struggles to shake off the effects of the Covid-19 pandemic and the ensuing oil market crash, Rystad Energy research shows.

only 21 lease rounds were completed globally through August this year, half of the 42 rounds held in the first eight months of 2021. The acreage awarded so far this year has shrunk to a 20-year low of 320,000 square kilometers. Global lease rounds are expected to total 44 this year, 14 less than in 2021 and the lowest level since 2000, Rystad explained.

Global spending on exploration has been falling in recent years as oil and gas companies seek to limit risk by focusing on core producing assets and regions with guaranteed output, aiming to streamline their operations and build a more resilient business amid market uncertainty and the threat of a recession.

The political landscape is also contributing to the decrease in license awards, with many governments pausing or halting leases and encouraging companies to wrap up exploration activity within already awarded blocks. This trend is likely to continue as governments are less eager to invest in fossil fuel production and instead look ahead to a net zero future.

“Global exploration activity has been on a downward trend in recent years, even before the Covid-19 pandemic and oil market crash, and that looks set to continue this year and beyond. Oil and gas companies are unwilling to take on the increased risk associated with new exploration or exploration in environmentally or politically sensitive areas,” Aatisha Mahajan, vice president of analysis at Rystad Energy.

The onshore exploration sector is a significant contributor to the decline in awarded acreage. Total onshore acreage awarded in leasing activity has plummeted from more than 560,000 square kilometers in 2019 to a mere 115,000 square kilometers so far this year. Offshore leased acreage also hit a high point in 2019 before dropping off a cliff in 2020 and has remained relatively flat in the past two years.

Concluded lease rounds have dropped significantly in the larger producer, the US, and Australia this year. These countries have held five lease rounds put together so far this year – three in the larger producer and one each in the US and Australia – down from 17 rounds in the first eight months of 2021 (five in the US, and four in Australia). The drop in the US is primarily driven by the cancellation of Lease Sales 259 and 261 in the Gulf of Mexico and Cook Inlet in Alaska.

Asian licensing has bucked the trend with increased activity and blocks awarded in Malaysia, Indonesia, India, and Pakistan. The global decline in licensing rounds has directly affected the awarded acreage, which has hit an all-time low for the January to August period of about 320,000 square kilometers.

The decline in leasing activity has resulted in a considerable drop in the larger producer acreage awards, falling 90 percent from a year ago to 9,000 square kilometers, while licensed acreage in Africa shrank 70 percent to just 46,000 square kilometers spread across Angola, Egypt, Morocco, and Zimbabwe, the only African countries to award new exploration acreage to date in 2022.

On the other hand, new acreage awarded in Asia between January and August nearly quadrupled from the same period last year, while South American awarded acreage surged by 140 percent.

Brazil is the largest contributor in terms of blocks awarded so far this year, with 59 auctioned during its Third Permanent Offer Round. European majors Shell and TotalEnergies took all eight offshore blocks on offer – six and two, respectively. The remaining 51 onshore blocks in the Tucano, Espirito Santo, Potiguar, Reconcavo, and Sergipe Alagoas basins went to regional players 3R Petroleum (six blocks), NTF (two), Petro Victory Energy (19), Origem Energia (18), Imetame Energia (three), Petroborn Oleo (two), and CE Engenharia (one).

Other sizeable block awards after Brazil were Norway with 54 new licenses in its APA 2021 round, India with 29 blocks its OLAP Rounds 6 & 7, and Kazakhstan’s fourth oil and gas auction round in which 11 blocks were awarded.

There was also some sporadic activity in Africa between January and August, with Egypt providing rights to explore in nine blocks and Angola granting two blocks. South America also saw an offshore licensing round in Uruguay, where three exploration blocks were awarded – blocks OFF-2 and OFF-7 to Shell and Block OFF-6 to US independent APA. Challenger Energy signed a 30-year license for OFF-1 through direct negotiation with the government.