據(jù)美國油價(jià)網(wǎng)7月22日報(bào)道，知名對沖基金經(jīng)理皮埃爾·安杜蘭周五在社交媒體中表示，即使全球經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退，石油需求也可能會超出預(yù)期。?

這位對沖基金經(jīng)理表示，受疫情影響，過去幾年中的消費(fèi)需求一直遠(yuǎn)低于趨勢水平。?

安杜蘭指出，從2000年到2010年、2010年到2019年，年均石油需求增長相當(dāng)穩(wěn)定，約為120萬桶/日至130萬桶/日，與人口增長基本一致。以2019年為基準(zhǔn)，按照需求年增長120萬桶/日來計(jì)算的話，今年世界平均需求量將為1.042億桶/日或比目前預(yù)期的9920萬桶/日高出500萬桶/日。

“?即使是在一個非常疲軟的經(jīng)濟(jì)環(huán)境下，石油需求仍可能會出乎意料地上升”，他補(bǔ)充到。

就在地緣政治沖突爆發(fā)的前幾周，安杜蘭曾表示，今年年底，油價(jià)可能會創(chuàng)下每桶200美元的歷史新高，因?yàn)闊o論是歐佩克+的非洲成員國還是美國開采頁巖油的石油生產(chǎn)商都無法彌補(bǔ)產(chǎn)能大國的供應(yīng)缺口。?

考慮到高油價(jià)打壓原油需求，且多國央行紛紛通過加息緩解通脹壓力將導(dǎo)致經(jīng)濟(jì)放緩甚至衰退，國際機(jī)構(gòu)最近下調(diào)了今年全球原油需求預(yù)期。

例如，國際能源署上周預(yù)計(jì)今年全球石油需求增長為170萬桶/日，把其對今年全球石油需求增長預(yù)期下調(diào)10萬桶/日。

國際能源署上周在石油市場報(bào)告中表示：“油價(jià)上漲和經(jīng)濟(jì)環(huán)境惡化已開始對全球石油需求造成影響，但亞洲強(qiáng)勁的發(fā)電需求和經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇正在部分抵消這一影響。”

孫美玲 摘譯自 美國油價(jià)網(wǎng)

原文如下：

Pierre Andurand Sees Oil Demand Surprising To The Upside 

Global oil demand is more likely to surprise to the upside even in a very weak economy, popular hedge fund manager Pierre Andurand said in a Twitter thread on Friday.

Due to COVID-related lockdowns, demand has been way below trend over the last few years, the hedge fund manager said.  

Average annual oil demand growth from 2000 to 2010, and 2010 to 2019 was quite steady at around 1.2 million bpd to 1.3 million bpd, and in line with population growth over time, Andurand noted. Taking 2019 as a base, and estimating demand growth at 1.2 million bpd per year, we should be at 104.2 million bpd of demand for 2022. But the latest estimate is 99.2 million bpd, or 5 million bpd below trend already, the hedge fund manager noted.

“Very weak demand is already in the forecasts,” Andurand said, but added that “it is more likely to surprise to the upside, even in a very weak economy, assuming we can get enough supply.”

In the first weeks after the war, Andurand said that oil prices could jump to an all-time high of $200 per barrel by the end of this year, as oil producers ranging from African members of OPEC+ to the U.S. shale patch would struggle to replace the larger producer crude that is going off the market. 

Forecasts of global demand growth have been downgraded in recent weeks amid concerns that high fuel prices are starting to dent demand and that an economic slowdown, and even recession, is in the cards in the near future as central banks have begun an aggressive cycle of key interest rate hikes to fight high inflation.

The International Energy Agency (IEA), for example, revised down last week its oil demand growth estimate by 100,000 bpd to 1.7 million bpd growth for 2022.

“Higher prices and a deteriorating economic environment have started to take their toll on oil demand, but strong power generation use and a recovery in Asia are providing a partial offset,” the agency said in its closely-watched Oil Market Report (OMR) last week.