???? 據(jù)2月7日Arab News報(bào)道，油價(jià)創(chuàng)下今年以來(lái)的最大單周漲幅，達(dá)到一年來(lái)的最高水平。布倫特原油價(jià)格即將突破60美元/桶的重要關(guān)口，收于每桶59.34美元，西德克薩斯中質(zhì)原油(WTI)價(jià)格收于每桶56.85美元。

????可以說(shuō)，人們從未想到西德克薩斯中質(zhì)油價(jià)格會(huì)在從9個(gè)月前的每桶0美元升至每桶55美元，也從未想到布倫特原油會(huì)在跌到每桶16美元后升至近每桶60美元。這要?dú)w功于歐佩克成功的市場(chǎng)管理，其實(shí)施的中期戰(zhàn)略平衡了市場(chǎng)，同時(shí)也保持了歐佩克在全球能源安全中的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)作用。

????來(lái)自歐佩克+的緊縮供應(yīng)已成功地將布倫特原油期貨處于現(xiàn)貨溢價(jià)狀態(tài)，這鼓勵(lì)石油交易商從庫(kù)存中提取石油，暗示著市場(chǎng)走強(qiáng)。

????今年1月，歐佩克+在維持石油減產(chǎn)方面保持了很高的一致性，油價(jià)的上漲勢(shì)頭并沒(méi)有讓其改變每天減產(chǎn)720萬(wàn)桶的減產(chǎn)決定。

????要知道，油價(jià)飆升很大一部分是因?yàn)闅W佩克在市場(chǎng)脆弱和石油需求復(fù)蘇不確定的情況下發(fā)揮了有效的市場(chǎng)領(lǐng)導(dǎo)作用。

????此外，在天氣轉(zhuǎn)冷的推動(dòng)下，原油價(jià)格持續(xù)上漲，導(dǎo)致原油期貨曲線進(jìn)一步走強(qiáng)，抵消了短期需求恢復(fù)的挑戰(zhàn)性危機(jī)，即人們擔(dān)心新的病毒變種將導(dǎo)致更多的出行限制，加上一些國(guó)家正面臨疫苗的推廣問(wèn)題。

????現(xiàn)在說(shuō)石油需求已經(jīng)恢復(fù)可能為時(shí)過(guò)早，局面尚未扭轉(zhuǎn)。歐佩克持續(xù)減產(chǎn)的決定也下得太早，使石油市場(chǎng)供小于求。亞洲和歐洲出行限制措施的再次實(shí)施，使交通燃料的復(fù)蘇變得愈發(fā)脆弱，全球商業(yè)航班已回落至2019年可比水平的60%以下。此外，美國(guó)能源信息署（EIA）預(yù)計(jì)，到2025年，美國(guó)的能源消耗將回到疫情爆發(fā)前的水平，因?yàn)槭托枨髲?fù)蘇的預(yù)期在很大程度上取決于經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇的步伐。

????馮于榮 摘譯自Arab News

????原文如下：

????WEEKLY ENERGY RECAP: Global oil prices reach pre-pandemic levels at a one-year high

????Oil prices made their biggest weekly gain this year, reaching pre-pandemic levels at a one-year high. The price of Brent crude is about to breach the important psychological mark of $60, closing the week at $59.34 per barrel. The price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude closed the week at $56.85 per barrel.

????Prices have reached a year high — the market never imagined that the price of WTI would breach $55 per barrel after going below zero 9 months ago or that Brent crude would reach nearly $60 per barrel after touching $16 per barrel. The credit goes to the successful market management of OPEC and its leadership role in implementing medium-term strategies to balance the market while maintaining the principle of global energy security.

????Tighter supplies from OPEC+ have successfully turned the Brent future curve to backwardation, which encourages oil traders to take oil out of storage, signaling a stronger market.

????In January this year, OPEC+ achieved high compliance in maintaining oil output cuts; an upward momentum in oil prices did not alter its output cuts of 7.2 million barrels per day (bpd).

????The price surge is due to OPEC’s effective market leadership despite the fragile market and uncertain oil demand recovery.

????Also, the outlook for a tightening physical crude market amid continuing stock draws, helped by colder weather, has led crude’s futures curve to further strengthening, offsetting the challenging short-term demand recovery amid concern that the new virus variants will lead to more lockdowns and that some countries are facing vaccine rollouts issues.

????It might be too early for oil demand recovery to do a U-turn. It might also be too early for OPEC+ output cuts to tighten the oil market to be in a deficit this year. Asia and Europe are setting back a fragile recovery in transport fuels with renewed lockdowns, and worldwide commercial flights have fallen back to less than 60 percent of comparable 2019 levels. In addition, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) expects that energy consumption in the US will return to pre-pandemic levels by 2025 as the expectations of oil demand recovery depend greatly on the pace of the economic recovery.