據(jù)今日油價(jià)7月19日?qǐng)?bào)道，油價(jià)在周一早盤下跌近4%，WTI原油跌至每桶69美元上方，此前歐佩克+石油輸出國(guó)組織（OPEC+）周日決定，從8月份開始每月向市場(chǎng)返還40萬桶/日（bpd），直至解除所有580萬桶/日的減產(chǎn)。

　　歐佩克+聯(lián)盟每月增加石油供應(yīng)的前景，正值許多國(guó)家的感染人數(shù)上升之際，因?yàn)镈elta型病毒傳播速度更快。石油輸出國(guó)組織(OPEC，簡(jiǎn)稱:歐佩克)及其以俄羅斯為首的非歐佩克伙伴國(guó)供應(yīng)增加，對(duì)全球石油需求復(fù)蘇可能受阻的擔(dān)憂拖累油價(jià)周一下跌。

　　截至美國(guó)東部時(shí)間上午8:22，WTI原油價(jià)格下跌3.9%至69.01美元，布倫特原油下跌3.52%至71.00美元。

　　歐佩克+就產(chǎn)量和基準(zhǔn)產(chǎn)量水平達(dá)成協(xié)議的事實(shí)消除了市場(chǎng)的一個(gè)重大不確定性，其中一部分原因是擔(dān)心聯(lián)盟解體。

　　RBC資本市場(chǎng)全球大宗商品策略主管Helima Croft對(duì)CNBC表示，這筆交易對(duì)市場(chǎng)具有建設(shè)性意義，他指出：“這一協(xié)議應(yīng)該讓市場(chǎng)參與者感到安慰，即該集團(tuán)不會(huì)走向混亂的分拆，短期內(nèi)也不會(huì)打開生產(chǎn)閘門。”

　　盡管未來幾個(gè)月，歐佩克+將增加越來越多的供應(yīng)，但許多分析師仍認(rèn)為，由于需求持續(xù)增長(zhǎng)，市場(chǎng)將保持相對(duì)緊張的局面。

　　例如，荷蘭國(guó)際集團(tuán)（ING）保持了今年第三季度布倫特原油每桶75美元的油價(jià)預(yù)期，因?yàn)闅W佩克（OPEC+）增加的供應(yīng)符合該行此前的預(yù)測(cè)。

　　ING策略師Warren Patterson和Wenyu Yao周一早些時(shí)候表示：“健康的需求增長(zhǎng)加上歐佩克+的溫和供應(yīng)增長(zhǎng)，至少在短期內(nèi)仍可能對(duì)石油市場(chǎng)構(gòu)成支撐”。

　　高盛（Goldman Sachs）繼續(xù)看好石油，甚至認(rèn)為歐佩克+協(xié)議較今年夏天每桶80美元的布倫特原油期貨預(yù)期上漲。

　　壽琳玲 編譯自 今日油價(jià)

　　Oil Prices Crash After OPEC+ Reaches Deal To Ease Cuts

　　Oil prices dropped by nearly 4 percent early on Monday, with WTI Crude slipping to an eyelash above $69 per barrel, after OPEC+ decided on Sunday it would start returning 400,000 barrels per day (bpd) to the market every month beginning in August until it unwinds all the 5.8 million bpd cuts.

　　The prospect of monthly increments in oil supply from the OPEC+ alliance comes just as COVID infections are rising in many countries because of the faster-spreading Delta variant. Concerns over potential hiccups in global oil demand recovery amid rising supply from OPEC and its Russia-led non-OPEC partners dragged oil prices down on Monday.

　　As of 8:22 a.m. EDT, WTI Crude prices were trading down by 3.9 percent at $69.01 and Brent Crude was down 3.52 percent at $71.00.

　　The fact that OPEC+ reached a deal on production and baseline production levels removed a major uncertainty from the market, some part of which was fearing a breakup in the alliance.

　　The deal is constructive for the market, Helima Croft, head of global commodity strategy at RBC Capital Markets, told CNBC, noting that “This agreement should give market participants comfort that the group is not headed for a messy breakup and will not be opening up the production floodgates anytime soon.”

　　Despite the fact that OPEC+ will be adding more and more supply in each of the coming months, many analysts continue to believe that the market will remain relatively tight because demand continues to grow.

　　ING, for example, kept its oil price forecast of $75 per barrel for Brent Crude over the third quarter this year because the supply additions from OPEC+ are in line with the bank’s earlier projections.

　　“Healthy demand growth combined with moderate supply increases from OPEC+ will likely remain supportive for the oil market in short term at least,” ING strategists Warren Patterson and Wenyu Yao said early on Monday.

　　Goldman Sachs continues to be bullish on oil and even sees the OPEC+ deal as having a $2 per barrel upside to its $80 a barrel Brent outlook for this summer. ?

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