???? 據(jù)3月3日Neftegaz.RU消息：牛津商業(yè)集團(tuán)的一項(xiàng)分析顯示，持續(xù)減產(chǎn)和經(jīng)濟(jì)活動(dòng)增加的結(jié)合，已促使油價(jià)回到疫情前水平，這一因素對(duì)中東和非洲主要產(chǎn)油國(guó)的復(fù)蘇至關(guān)重要。

????2月初，布倫特原油價(jià)格升至每桶60美元以上，首次超過疫情前價(jià)格。此后油價(jià)繼續(xù)上漲，2月24日突破每桶66美元。

????油價(jià)自去年11月以來上漲了75%，自今年年初以來上漲了約26%，這標(biāo)志著與去年相比發(fā)生了巨大變化。

????在2020年初沙特-俄羅斯價(jià)格戰(zhàn)之后，隨著供應(yīng)增加和需求暴跌，布倫特原油價(jià)格從當(dāng)年2月的每桶60美元左右降至4月下旬的每桶20美元，為20年來的低點(diǎn)。

????盡管全球石油需求仍處于低位，但推動(dòng)這一趨勢(shì)逆轉(zhuǎn)的一個(gè)因素是各國(guó)決定大幅削減石油產(chǎn)量，隨后導(dǎo)致全球供應(yīng)緊張。

????今年8月，由23個(gè)國(guó)家組成的歐佩克+決定將產(chǎn)量削減至770萬桶/天，并在12月初宣布，自2021年1月起將增加50萬桶/天的產(chǎn)量。

????由于擔(dān)心最近的決定可能導(dǎo)致市場(chǎng)石油供應(yīng)過剩，沙特阿拉伯宣布，將在1月至3月底期間每日再削減100萬桶石油供應(yīng)。

????另一個(gè)被認(rèn)為支撐油價(jià)上漲的因素是經(jīng)濟(jì)前景的改善。

????隨著各種新冠肺炎疫苗在全球推廣，人們希望2021年全球在旅游和消費(fèi)方面將恢復(fù)到正常水平，這將進(jìn)一步刺激需求。

????在2月中旬發(fā)布的年度展望中，歐佩克預(yù)測(cè)，與2020年的水平相比，全年石油需求將增加580萬桶/天，部分原因是全球經(jīng)濟(jì)環(huán)境改善和世界各國(guó)政府的重大刺激措施。

????至于未來的油價(jià)，國(guó)際貨幣基金組織在1月下旬預(yù)測(cè)，今年平均油價(jià)將為每桶50美元，高于2020年每桶41.30美元的平均水平。

????然而，今年前2個(gè)月的持續(xù)上漲導(dǎo)致了一些更加樂觀的預(yù)測(cè):

????荷蘭跨國(guó)銀行荷蘭國(guó)際集團(tuán)(ING)預(yù)測(cè)，油價(jià)每年平均為65美元/桶。

????投資銀行高盛預(yù)測(cè)，布倫特原油價(jià)格今年第三季度將升至每桶75美元，比此前的預(yù)期高出10美元。

????馮娟 摘譯自 Neftegaz.RU

????原文如下：

????Middle East producers are desperate for higher oil prices

????According to an analysis by the Oxford Business Group, a combination of continued production cuts and an increase in economic activity has prompted oil prices to return to pre-pandemic levels – a factor that will be crucial to the recovery of major oil-producing countries in the Middle East and Africa.

????Brent crude prices rose above $60 a barrel in early February, the 1st time they had exceeded pre-Covid-19 values.

????They have since continued to rise, going above $66 a barrel on February 24.

????This increase in oil prices, which soared by 75% from November and by around 26% since the beginning of the year, marks a dramatic change from last year.

????In the wake of the Saudi-Russia price war in early 2020, Brent crude prices fell from around $60 a barrel in February that year to 2-decade lows of $20 a barrel in late April, as supply increased and demand plummeted.

????While global demand for oil remains low, one factor credited with reversing the trend is the decision to make significant cuts to oil production, which subsequently tightened global supplies.

????The 23-nation group, known as OPEC+, decided to scale back the cuts to 7.7m bpd in August, before announcing in early December that they would increase production by 500,000 bpd as of January 2021.

????Concerned that the most recent decision could have led to excess oil in the market, Saudi Arabia announced that it would cut an additional 1m barrels daily between January and the end of March.

????Another factor seen to be supporting the increase in oil prices is the improving economic outlook.

????With the global rollout of various Covid-19 vaccines, it is hoped that the world will return to a degree of normality in 2021 in terms of travel and consumption, an outcome that would further spur demand.

????In an annual outlook released in mid-February, OPEC forecast full-year oil demand to increase by 5.8m bpd compared to 2020 levels, driven partly by an improving global economic climate and significant stimulus measures from governments around the world.

????As for the value of oil moving forward, in late January, the IMF forecast oil prices would average $50 a barrel this year, above the 2020 average of $41.30.

????However, the continued rise of prices over the 1st 2 months of the year has led to some more bullish estimates:

????with Dutch multinational banking firm ING predicting average annual prices of $65 per barrel

????while investment bank Goldman Sachs has forecast Brent prices will rise as high as $75 a barrel in the Q3 of the year, $10 higher than earlier estimates