據(jù)油價(jià)網(wǎng)7月25日?qǐng)?bào)道稱，由于國(guó)際貨幣基金組織（IMF）發(fā)布的樂(lè)觀預(yù)測(cè)，油價(jià)周二上午再次上漲。

周二，國(guó)際貨幣基金組織根據(jù)第一季度樂(lè)觀的經(jīng)濟(jì)活動(dòng)上調(diào)了2023年全球增長(zhǎng)預(yù)期。國(guó)際貨幣基金組織目前估計(jì)，2023年美國(guó)國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值將增長(zhǎng)3%，比4月份公布的預(yù)測(cè)增長(zhǎng)0.2個(gè)百分點(diǎn)。2024年保持不變，為3%。

消息傳出后，油價(jià)上漲，WTI突破79美元大關(guān)。美國(guó)東部時(shí)間7月25日上午10時(shí)52分，WTI的交易價(jià)格為79.05美元，當(dāng)日上漲0.31美元（0.39%）。布倫特原油價(jià)格上漲至83美元以上，當(dāng)日上漲0.29美元（+0.35%）。

油價(jià)將取決于美國(guó)石油協(xié)會(huì)（API）對(duì)美國(guó)原油和原油產(chǎn)品庫(kù)存變動(dòng)的估計(jì)。

盡管高于之前的估計(jì)，但國(guó)際貨幣基金組織的預(yù)測(cè)仍然反映了經(jīng)濟(jì)疲軟，因?yàn)槠骄鵊DP增長(zhǎng)率低于前十年的均值3.8%。

國(guó)際貨幣基金組織首席經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家Pierre Olivier Gourinchas在周二接受路透社采訪時(shí)表示：“五年后，我們看到的實(shí)際增長(zhǎng)率接近3.0%，可能略高于3.0%。與疫情前相比，這是一個(gè)顯著的放緩。”

國(guó)際貨幣基金組織（IMF）在其預(yù)測(cè)中表示，雖然由于世界衛(wèi)生組織（WHO）已結(jié)束全球衛(wèi)生緊急狀況警示，產(chǎn)品運(yùn)輸成本和交付時(shí)間已恢復(fù)到疫情前的水平，但通貨膨脹仍在蠶食家庭購(gòu)買(mǎi)力。此外，高利率提高了借貸成本，而在疫情期間建立的儲(chǔ)蓄正在減少。

國(guó)際貨幣基金組織在其展望中警告稱，如果地緣政治惡化，或者極端氣溫進(jìn)一步推高大宗商品價(jià)格，通貨膨脹可能會(huì)進(jìn)一步上升。

梁金燕 譯自 油價(jià)網(wǎng)

原文如下：

Oil Prices Tick Higher On Optimistic Economic Forecasts

Oil prices saw another rise on Tuesday morning on optimistic forecasts published by the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

On Tuesday, the IMF raised its 2023 global growth estimates based on promising economic activity in Q1. For 2023, the IMF is now estimating a 3% GDP growth—up 0.2 percentage points from its forecast published in April. Its 2024 remains unchanged at 3.0%.

Oil prices rose on the news, with WTI surpassing the $79 mark. WTI was trading at $79.05 as of 10:52 am ET, up $0.31 (0.39%) on the day. Brent crude rose above $83, up $0.29 (+0.35%) on the day.

Oil prices will now be subjected to estimates from the American Petroleum Institute (API) later this afternoon on U.S. crude oil and crude products inventory moves.

While higher than previous estimates, the IMF's forecast is still reflective of economic weakness and below the average 3.8% GDP growth seen across the previous decade.

"What we are seeing when we look five years out is actually close to 3.0%, maybe a little bit above 3.0%. This is a significant slowdown compared to what we had pre-COVID," IMF chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas told Reuters in a Tuesday interview.

The IMF stated in its forecast that while shipping costs and delivery times have returned to pre-pandemic levels now that the WHO has ended the global health emergency, inflation continues to eat away at household buying power. In addition, high interest rates have raised the cost of borrowing, while savings built during the pandemic are receding.

The IMF included a warning in its outlook that inflation could rise further should the war in Ukraine worsen, or if extreme temperatures raise commodity prices further.