盡管對化石燃料的需求仍然很高，而且還在攀升，但全球石油和天然氣項目的投資卻低得令人擔憂

全球油田產量的平均遞減率約為6%，這意味著油氣公司必須投資新項目才能維持目前的產量水平

石油和天然氣供應的中斷凸顯了全球能源系統的脆弱性，在能源安全之前優先考慮可持續性可能是未來面臨的一個真正問題

據油價網2023年3月11日報道，盡管去年高油價推動能源公司利潤飆升，但這些利潤幾乎沒有再投資石油和天然氣業務。由于石油和天然氣公司認識到未來能源轉型的必然性，許多油氣公司正在向他們的清潔能源業務投入資金，并將資金返還給股東。然而，能源專家擔心，在化石燃料需求旺盛且不斷攀升之際，石油和天然氣項目投資不足可能會威脅到世界能源安全。

沙特石油巨頭沙特阿拉伯國家石油公司（沙特阿美）首席執行官阿明·納賽爾日前告訴媒體消息人士，“石油行業上游甚至下游的投資仍然持續不足”。國際能源署（IEA）的最新報告談到了全球1.017億桶原油的需求——隨著市場的開放和航空業的發展，今年全球原油日需求量將從2022年的1億桶增加近200萬桶，而全球航空業至今尚未恢復到疫情前的水平。

納賽爾解釋說，“航空業有很大的增長潛力”。納賽爾補充說：“隨著市場開放和投資的缺乏，在確保市場上有足夠的供應方面，從中長期來看肯定會有一個問題。”納賽爾還表示，盡管美國大量的燃料供應為油價下跌提供了理由，但油氣鉆探活動的放緩可能會威脅到未來的供應。

納賽爾是最近一位對油氣行業投資不足表示擔憂的能源專家。上游投資從2014年的大約7000億美元下降到今天的3700億至4000億美元。雖然這反映了能源行業的擴張，包括可替代的清潔能源形式，并逐漸遠離化石燃料，但考慮到對石油和天然氣的持續高需求，這個投資數是非常低的。

此外，人們還擔心對最終將枯竭的成熟油田的持續依賴。全球油田產量的平均遞減率約為6%，這意味著油氣公司需要增加投資彌補生產率來確保預期的產量。解決這一問題的方法之一是投資其他產油區的勘探和開發，以建立新的項目。但由于許多公司不愿投資可能需要幾十年才能起步的新業務，世界可能最終不得不面臨石油和天然氣供應不足的局面。

投資不足的問題在去年舉行的阿布扎比國際石油展覽會和會議(ADIPEC)上得到了解決，專家們討論了能源安全和可持續性之間的平衡。許多行業領袖強調了他們的擔憂，即一些人似乎為了可持續性而犧牲能源安全，導致石油和天然氣領域的投資嚴重不足。與會的許多人士認為投資不足是魯莽的，這表明許多企業追隨政策制定者和公眾情緒，他們一直在推動“目前顯得為時過早的”能源轉型。

隨著能源安全成為討論的中心，特別是在地緣政治沖突爆發以及隨后對能源的制裁之后，ADIPEC討論了遠離石油和天然氣是否為時過早，因為許多可再生能源項目仍處于萌芽階段，化石燃料和綠色替代品的供需之間存在潛在差距。ADIPEC的行業領袖認為，在政府、活動家、投資者和銀行的壓力下，能源供應持續而嚴重的投資不足是當前能源危機的主要刺激因素，對全球能源安全構成巨大威脅。

在石油和天然氣公司經歷豐厚收益的一年之后，上述情況可能會讓許多人感到震驚。能源公司似乎不可避免地將資金投入運營，以確保未來的供應。然而，隨著脫碳的壓力越來越大，政策鼓勵加大對綠色能源的投資，加上多項減稅和激勵措施來推動這一議程，許多石油和天然氣公司選擇將資金投資到其他地方。

摩根大通的研究預測，到2030年，全球石油支出將不足4000億美元。雖然這些支出的大部分將流向非化石燃料，但摩根大通的研究表明，無論是石油和天然氣還是替代能源，都不會以滿足日益增長的全球需求所需的速度增長，這將導致未來幾年更多的能源危機。摩根大通全球能源戰略主管克里斯蒂安·馬利克在關注化石燃料支出不足時表示：“與可再生能源相比，石油行業相對缺乏資金，但有大量的項目和潛在供應可供開發。”他補充說，由于未來十年預期的高需求，“石油是我們認為最需要增量投資的領域，無論是維持現有的生產基礎，還是產量增長；因為我們看到2030年全球的石油需求將比2019年的水平日均高出710萬桶，目前的支出水平意味著到2030年全球石油需求的日均缺口為70萬桶。”

盡管利潤豐厚，對石油和天然氣的需求持續高漲，而且目前面臨的能源危機(當歐洲能源被移除時，已經暴露出嚴重的供應短缺)，但化石燃料的投資仍然嚴重不足。雖然這可能被視為綠色轉型的積極因素，但專家們擔心，到化石燃料項目減少時，將沒有足夠的綠色能源來填補供需缺口，從而導致未來更大的能源不安全和更多的能源危機。

李峻 編譯自 油價網 

原文如下： 

The World Desperately Needs More Oil And Gas Investment

·     While demand for fossil fuels remains high and is climbing, investment in oil and gas projects around the world is worryingly low.

·     The average global decline rate of oilfields is around 6%, which means oil and gas companies have to invest in new projects simply to maintain production levels.

·     Disruptions in oil and gas supplies have highlighted how vulnerable the global energy system is, and prioritizing sustainability over energy security could be a real problem in the future.

Despite high oil prices sending energy company profits soaring over the last year, little of those profits have been reinvested in the oil and gas business. As oil and gas companies acknowledge the inevitability of an energy transition in the future, many are pumping funds into their clean energy business and returning money to shareholders. However, energy experts are concerned that underinvestment in oil and gas could threaten the world’s energy security at a time when the demand for fossil fuels is high and climbing. 

The CEO of Saudi Arabia’s oil giant Saudi Aramco, Amin Nasser, told media sources this month that “A persistent underinvestment in oil upstream and even downstream is still there. The latest report from the IEA talks about a demand of 101.7 million barrels — going from 100 million barrels in 2022 to almost 2 million barrels more with market opening up and the aviation industry,” which has not yet returned to pre-Covid levels.

Nasser explained, “There is a lot of potential for growth in aviation,” adding, “And with market's opening up and the lack of investment, there is definitely a concern in the mid-to-long term in terms of making sure there is adequate supplies in the market.” He also suggested that while substantial U.S. fuel supplies have supported a fall in oil prices, the slowing of drilling activities could threaten the future supply. 

Nasser is the latest of several energy experts to state their concern about underinvestment in the industry. Upstream spending has fallen from around $700 billion in 2014 to between $370 to $400 billion today. While this reflects the expansion of the energy industry to include alternative cleaner forms of energy and a gradual move away from fossil fuels, this is very low considering the continued high demand for oil and gas. 

There is also a concern about the ongoing reliance on mature oil fields, which will eventually dry up. The average global decline rate of oilfields is around 6%, meaning companies need to offset their production rate to ensure the intended output. One way to address this is to invest in exploration and development in other oil regions to establish new projects. But with many companies unwilling to invest in new operations that could take decades to get off the ground, the world may have to eventually face an undersupply of oil and gas. 

The issue of underinvestment was addressed last year at the Abu Dhabi International Petroleum Exhibition & Conference (ADIPEC), where experts discussed the balance between energy security and sustainability. Many industry leaders highlighted the concern that energy security had been seemingly sacrificed by some for sustainability, resulting in significant underinvestment in oil and gas. Many at the conference viewed the underinvestment as reckless, suggesting many firms have followed policymakers and public sentiment that have been pushing a premature energy transition. 

With energy security at the center of the discussion, particularly following the war and subsequent sanctions on energy, the ADIPEC debated whether the move away from oil and gas is coming too soon, with many renewable energy projects still in the nascent stage and a potential gap between supply and demand of both fossil fuels and green alternatives. Industry leaders at ADIPEC determined that the persistent and severe underinvestment in energy supply, driven by pressure from governments, activists, investors, and banks, has been a major stimulus for the current energy crisis and represents a huge threat to global energy security.  

This may come as a shock to many in the wake of a year of high profits for oil and gas companies. It seemed inevitable that energy firms would pump funds back into operations to ensure the future supply. However, with greater pressures to decarbonize and policies encouraging greater investment in green energy – with several tax cuts and incentives to push this agenda, many oil and gas firms have chosen to invest their money elsewhere.

Research by JP Morgan predicts a $400 billion oil underspend to 2030. And while much of this spending will, instead, go towards non-fossil fuels, the firm’s research demonstrates that neither oil and gas nor alternative energy will grow at the rate needed to meet the growing global demand, resulting in more energy crises in the coming years. Focusing on the fossil fuels underspend, Christyan Malek, JP Morgan's Global Head of Energy Strategy stated, “In contrast with renewables, the oil industry is comparatively starved of capital but with an abundance of projects and potential supply to be tapped into.” He added that due to the anticipated high demand over the next decade, “oil is really where we see the greatest need for incremental investment, both in sustaining the existing production base, as well as growing it, as we see 2030 demand 7.1 million bpd above 2019 levels, with current spending levels implying a 700,000-bpd average gap to 2030.” 

Despite high profits, the ongoing high demand for oil and gas, and the current energy crisis – which has revealed severe supply shortages when Europe energy is removed – there continues to be significant underinvestment in fossil fuels. While this could be seen as positive for the green transition, experts fear that there will not be enough green energy to fill the gap in supply and demand by the time that fossil fuel projects wane, resulting in greater energy insecurity and more energy crises in the future.