據阿拉伯貿易網2023年3月13日倫敦報道，惠譽國際評級(Fitch Ratings)上調了2024年至2025年的油價預期，預計地緣政治問題將延長油價回落至較低長期水平的時間。

惠譽國際評級表示，它還下調了2023年對歐洲TTF和美國亨利中心天然氣價格的假設，反映了歐洲需求的減少，主要是由于需求破壞、充足的液化天然氣供應、高于平均水平的天然氣庫存水平以及美國產量將增加的預期。

惠譽國際評級認為，2024年布倫特原油價格為75美元/桶(早期假設為65美元/桶)，2025年為65美元/桶(早期假設為53美元/桶)。 

惠譽國際評級說：“我們上調2024至2025年油價假設反映了我們的觀點，即由于供應收緊以及歐佩克+對供應增加的謹慎態度，原油價格將需要更長的時間才能放緩。鑒于全球備用產能相當低，且需求不斷增加，中期內市場可能仍將吃緊。不過，我們預計市場將逐漸調整，尤其是得益于歐佩克以外(尤其是美國)的原油產量增長，以及歐佩克國家(尤其是沙特阿拉伯和阿聯酋)產能增加的前景?！?/p>

惠譽國際評級已將2023年至2025年布倫特原油和WTI原油之間價差的假設提高到每桶5美元，這反映了當前市場價差的擴大，由于運輸成本上升和市場波動，價差短期內不太可能縮小?；葑u國際評級預計，從2026年起，這一價差將縮小至每桶3美元。

惠譽國際評級說：“我們對2023年布倫特原油和長期油價的假設保持不變。目前市場供需基本平衡，盡管需求市場逐步重新開放，這可能會增加需求，而產能大國的石油出口迄今為止已經改道，而不是實質性減少。我們的油價長期假設反映了能源轉型導致的長期需求下降。”

李峻 編譯自 阿拉伯貿易網

原文如下：

Fitch Ratings raises oil price assumptions for 2024-2025

Fitch Ratings has increased its oil price assumptions for 2024-2025 on the expectation that geopolitical issues will extend the period before prices moderate towards lower, long-term levels. 

It has also reduced its 2023 assumptions for European TTF and US Henry Hub gas prices for 2023-2024, reflecting reduced demand in Europe, primarily due to demand destruction, ample LNG supplies, higher-than-average gas levels in storage and its expectation that production in the US will increase, said Fitch Ratings.

Fitch assumes a Brent price of $75/bbl in 2024 (old assumption - $65) and $65 in 2025 (old assumption $53/bbl). 

"Our increased 2024-2025 oil price assumptions reflect our view that it will take longer for prices to moderate due to tightening supply from Opec+’s cautious approach to supply increases. The market is likely to remain tight over the medium term, given fairly low spare capacity and increasing demand. However, we expect the market to gradually adjust, particularly thanks to production growth outside Opec (particularly in the US) and the prospect of capacity increases in Opec countries (particularly in Saudi Arabi and the UAE)," it said.

It has increased its assumption for the Brent-WTI differential to $5/bbl for 2023-2025, reflecting the wider current market differential, which is unlikely to shrink in the near term because of higher shipping costs and market volatility. It assumes the differential will shrink to $3/bbl from 2026.

"Our 2023 Brent and long-term oil price assumptions remain unchanged. The market is currently broadly balanced, despite market’s gradual reopening, which could potentially increase demand while oil exports have been re-routed so far, rather than materially reduced. Our long-term assumptions reflect falling long-term demand due to the energy transition."