據(jù)美國油價網(wǎng)2022年6月27日報道，根據(jù)路透社發(fā)表的一篇報告，歐佩克+將降低其對今年石油市場過剩的預(yù)測。  

這份報告是在周二召開的歐佩克+聯(lián)合技術(shù)委員會會議之前準(zhǔn)備的。報告顯示，歐佩克+集團(tuán)目前預(yù)計今年石油市場每日過剩量將降至100萬桶，低于此前預(yù)估的140萬桶。

原油過剩預(yù)測的降低是由于歐佩克+集團(tuán)繼續(xù)在其配額下生產(chǎn)原油。歐佩克+同意在5月份日增43.2萬桶原油產(chǎn)量。但歐佩克+集團(tuán)未能實現(xiàn)這一目標(biāo)，比預(yù)期每天低270萬桶。今年6月，歐佩克+集團(tuán)再次同意將原油產(chǎn)量再日增43.2萬桶，但業(yè)內(nèi)普遍認(rèn)為，歐佩克+成員國也無法實現(xiàn)這一配額目標(biāo)。 

對于7月和8月，歐佩克+集團(tuán)更加雄心勃勃，更大幅度地提高原油產(chǎn)量目標(biāo)，實際上是將9月的增產(chǎn)計劃提前到了7月和8月。

如果歐佩克+確實在他們的估計中使用了這些產(chǎn)量數(shù)據(jù)，歐佩克+的持續(xù)減產(chǎn)將減少任何預(yù)期的市場過剩。

一直以來，歐佩克在減產(chǎn)協(xié)議上最大的落后者之一是尼日利亞，該國實際上在5月份的產(chǎn)量有所下降，而不是按照配額增加產(chǎn)量。結(jié)果是實際產(chǎn)量比配額每天少50萬桶。但尼日利亞石油部長上周表示，該國將能夠在8月底前實現(xiàn)其歐佩克產(chǎn)量配額。 

如果尼日利亞能在8月底達(dá)到產(chǎn)量配額，屆時歐佩克+產(chǎn)量配額將完全收回，這將大大增加歐佩克+集團(tuán)所認(rèn)為的市場過剩。 

李峻 編譯自 美國油價網(wǎng)

原文如下：

OPEC+ Sees Oil Market Surplus Shrinking To 1 Million Bpd

OPEC+ is slimming down its projections for an oil market surplus this year, according to a report seen by Reuters.

The report, which was prepared ahead of the OPEC+ JTC meeting that will take place on Tuesday, showed that the OPEC+ group now sees the oil market surplus at 1 million bpd this year—down from their previous estimates of 1.4 million bpd.

The lowering of crude oil surplus projections comes as the OPEC+ group continues to produce under its quota. OPEC+ agreed to increase its production in May by 432,000 bpd. The group was unable to reach this target, undershooting it by 2.7 million bpd. For June, the OPEC+ group again agreed to lift its production by another 432,000 bpd, but the general consensus in the industry is that they will be unable to meet that quota too.

For July and August, the OPEC+ group got even more ambitious, raising their output targets by an even greater extent, essentially rolling the September increase that they had planned into July and August.

But OPEC+’s continued underproduction will shrink any anticipated market surplus, if indeed OPEC+ is using these production figures in their estimates.

One of the biggest OPEC laggards in the production cut deal all along has been Nigeria, which actually had its production decrease in May instead of increase per the quota. The result was a half a million barrel a day shortfall in its actual production vs. its quota. But Nigeria’s oil minister last week said that it would be able to meet its OPEC production quota by the end of August.

If Nigeria manages to reach its production quota by the end of August when the OPEC+ quotas have been fully rolled back, it would go a long way to adding to that market surplus that the OPEC+ group sees.