據(jù)美國(guó)油價(jià)網(wǎng)報(bào)道，歐佩克2月10日表示，更強(qiáng)勁的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)和對(duì)疫情限制的放松，使全球石油需求的短期前景光明，具有上行潛力，并保持其對(duì)今年石油消費(fèi)將超過(guò)疫情前水平的預(yù)測(cè)。
在其備受關(guān)注的2月份月度石油市場(chǎng)報(bào)告(MOMR)中，歐佩克將今年的年度石油需求預(yù)估小幅上調(diào)1萬(wàn)桶，至每日1.008億桶，高于1月報(bào)告中預(yù)估的每日1.0079億桶。
歐佩克對(duì)今年第三季度和第四季度的全球石油日需求預(yù)估分別上調(diào)了3萬(wàn)桶和2萬(wàn)桶。 歐佩克預(yù)計(jì)，今年第三季度全球石油日需求平均為1.0132億桶，第四季度為1.0292億桶。
今年全球整個(gè)年度石油日需求增幅維持在420萬(wàn)桶不變。 歐佩克表示，今年全球平均石油日需求預(yù)計(jì)為1.008億桶，將超過(guò)2019年的水平。
在1月份的報(bào)告中，歐佩克也保持其對(duì)今年全球石油需求增長(zhǎng)的預(yù)期不變，并表示，奧米克戎毒株對(duì)全球石油需求的影響比一個(gè)月前的預(yù)期要弱，盡管貨幣緊縮政策，但石油市場(chǎng)將在今年全年得到良好的支持。
在2月份的報(bào)告中，歐佩克似乎更加樂(lè)觀，盡管它保持全球石油需求增長(zhǎng)預(yù)測(cè)不變。歐佩克在報(bào)告中表示：“由于全球多數(shù)經(jīng)濟(jì)體預(yù)計(jì)將增長(zhǎng)強(qiáng)勁，全球石油需求的近期前景肯定是光明的。”
歐佩克表示，疫情防控、供應(yīng)鏈中斷、通貨膨脹和勞動(dòng)力短缺可能導(dǎo)致全球經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)放緩，這將繼續(xù)是今年全球經(jīng)濟(jì)面臨的主要挑戰(zhàn)。
“盡管如此，基于持續(xù)觀察到的強(qiáng)勁經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇，在財(cái)政刺激的支持下，GDP已經(jīng)達(dá)到疫情前的水平，以及全球貿(mào)易規(guī)模達(dá)到歷史最高水平，預(yù)測(cè)的上行潛力普遍存在。”
李峻 編譯自 美國(guó)油價(jià)網(wǎng)
原文如下：
OPEC Sees Bright Prospects For Global Oil Demand This Year
Stronger economic growth and the easing of COVID restrictions make the near-term prospects for global oil demand bright, with an upside potential, OPEC said on Thursday, keeping its forecast that consumption will exceed pre-pandemic levels in 2022.
In its closely-watched Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR), the organization revised up slightly, by 10,000 bpd, its annual oil demand estimate for 2022 to 100.8 million bpd, up from 100.79 million bpd in last month’s report.
Estimates for the third and fourth quarter of 2022 were revised up by 30,000 bpd and 20,000 bpd, respectively. OPEC sees global oil demand averaging 101.32 million bpd in Q3 2022, and 102.92 million bpd in Q4.
Overall annual demand growth this year was left unchanged at 4.2 million bpd. This year’s expected global demand average of 100.8 million bpd will exceed the 2019 level, OPEC said.
In last month’s report, OPEC also left its demand growth estimate for 2022 unchanged, and said that the effect of Omicron on oil demand had been weaker than expected a month earlier, and the oil market was set to be well-supported throughout 2022 despite monetary tightening policies.
In this month’s report, OPEC appears even more optimistic, although it left the demand growth forecast unchanged.
“As most world economies are expected to grow stronger, the near-term prospects for world oil demand are certainly on the bright side,” the cartel said in the report.
The COVID containment, supply chain disruptions, inflation, and labor shortages that could slow economic growth will continue to be the main challenges to the global economy this year, OPEC said.
“Nevertheless, upside potential to the forecast prevails, based on an ongoing observed strong economic recovery with the GDP already reaching pre-pandemic levels, supported by fiscal stimulus, and global trade levels reaching an all-time high in volume terms. Moreover, mobility is expected to gain further momentum, particularly with regard to the travel and tourism sector,” the organization added.
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