據伍德麥肯茲1月20日報道，盡管聽起來像是破紀錄，但亞洲天然氣需求的前景極為樂觀。盡管有持續的疫情限制、天價現貨和來自可再生能源的競爭加劇，該地區天然氣消費在未來十年將以每年近3%的速度增長。在我們設定的基本方案中，峰值需求要到2050年以后才會出現，而在加速能源轉型方案2（AET-2）中，到2040年，脫碳幾乎不會影響亞洲天然氣需求。

現在，亞洲這個最大天然氣市場的挑戰是滿足需求。區域天然氣產量近期肯定會長期下降，這使得進口依賴性的上升不可避免，這對未來亞洲液化天然氣需求來說是經得起考驗的，預計未來十年進口將以每年3.7%的速度增長。今天，中國正在推動需求增長，展望未來，東南亞和南亞將成為世界上增長最快的液化天然氣市場。

隨著亞洲需求攀升，新的長期LNG合同在2021年回升到五年來的最高水平，亞洲買家占全球合同的85%。這些新簽約的供應大部分將來自卡塔爾和美國，以填補亞洲天然氣需求和該地區大部分地區本土供應下降之間快速增長的差距。

以前認為亞太地區未開發和尚未發現的天然氣資源將填補該地區大部分新出現的供需缺口的假設，已經被疲軟的E&A活動和低商業轉化率打亂。Angus Rodger在最近關于亞洲迫在眉睫的天然氣供應危機的報告中，看到了一個不利情況，即亞洲上游項目長期投資不足，到2040年可能需要高達240百萬噸/年的額外液化天然氣，這幾乎是基礎案例2.75億噸/年供應需求差距的兩倍。

隨著LNG價格達到創紀錄的水平，亞洲的買家渴望獲得新的合同以滿足激增的需求，為什么該地區的LNG回填項目沒有成為投資的首選？

對于亞太地區的LNG回填機會，時間至關重要

由于整個亞太地區有幾個未開發的LNG回填機會尚未開發，機會之窗有關閉的風險。伍德賽德和桑托斯去年在Scarborough/Pluto T2擴建項目和巴羅薩天然氣項目的FID中展示了可以做什么，來回填達爾文LNG項目。但是，對于該地區兩個最古老和最大的液化天然氣項目，即澳大利亞的西北大陸架（NWS）和印度尼西亞的Bontang，每年多達1500萬噸的潛在回填供應的進展仍然緩慢得令人痛苦。這兩個項目的回填方案成本都不低，對這兩個項目來說，重大決定迫在眉睫，即優先考慮回填開發還是開始關閉生產線。

正如亞太天然氣和液化天然氣團隊同事Daniel Toleman所說，“在液化天然氣價格創新高和區域天然氣需求強勁的背景下，時間是至關重要的”。

西北大陸架和Bontang項目為保持滿載而戰

西北大陸架需要新的供應來保持其五條生產線的滿載，迄今為止簽署的第三方交易只是一種權宜之計。但是，雖然 “最好的情況 ”是通過回填來支持每年約1000萬噸的產出，但所有選擇都會帶來各自挑戰。鑒于高成本、環境問題和合資企業的錯位，Browse這個領先的回填競爭者看起來不太可能在這十年里被開發。由于二氧化碳含量高達12%，碳捕獲和儲存將是必要的，這給已經很困難的項目增加了復雜性和成本。

在其他選擇中，Clio-Acme油田更有可能被優先用于回填雪佛龍的Wheatstone項目，因為該公司決定出售其NWS股份，轉而專注于這個早期的核心運營項目。最近伍德賽德的Wheatstone供應油田的儲量減少，也可能有助于推動Clio-Acme發展。

印度尼西亞傳統的Bontang項目繼續面臨著現有供應的重大不確定性。由于埃尼Merakes和PERTAMINA的Offshore Mahakam、東加里曼丹（Attaka）和Sanga Sanga PSC的問題，客戶已經被要求在今年推遲或取消貨運。

為了補救這一點，2021財政激勵措施，如Offshore Mahakam，加上價格飛漲，應該幫助PtTAMAMA增加回填鉆井。為了應對Mahakam嚴重衰退，預計PERTAMINA將在2022年提供入住機會。

在其他地方，Merakes的持續生產問題可能會威脅到埃尼公司在2023年之前提高對Bontang供應的計劃。如果挑戰持續存在，埃尼將不得不在Jangkrik的填充鉆井中做出選擇，以阻止下降，或者提前進行未來的合作。

雪佛龍出售其印尼深水開發項目（IDD）的結果必須盡快出來。自2019年以來，在市場上，實際需要在今年達成交易，以便IDD的天然氣在本世紀末之前取代邦當的產量下降。還有很多事情要做，包括就價格達成協議，政府批準延長PSC和授權新的開發計劃。

在其他地方，2022年的一個關鍵點是巴布亞新幾內亞政府同意與埃克森美孚領導的P'nyang天然氣合資企業達成協議，將該項目重新納入管道，使巴布亞新幾內亞液化天然氣3號生產線再次被提上日程。

政府的支持仍然至關重要

毫無疑問，運營商和合作伙伴都希望推進回填項目，并在亞洲液化天然氣需求中套現，當競爭項目簽署有價值的長期合同時，袖手旁觀并不有趣。但是，除非政府采取更多措施來激勵回填機會，包括審查當前的上游激勵措施和財政目標（印度尼西亞和巴布亞新幾內亞）以及碳捕獲（澳大利亞），否則開發商有可能錯過機會。

由于上游企業將迎來盈利能力增強的時期，政府改善條件或提供額外支持的任何努力都可能在政治上出現波動。但從目前的情況來看，除非當地政府更努力地爭奪未來的投資資金，否則亞太地區的液化天然氣回填有可能輸給卡塔爾、俄羅斯和美國等競爭對手。

在經濟增長、支持天然氣的政策和去碳化的推動下，亞洲的天然氣需求增長看起來是有前途的。該地區開發自己的天然氣資源以幫助滿足這一需求的能力卻不那么確定。對進口的依賴性上升是不可避免的，目前對新的長期液化天然氣合同的渴望證實了這一點。

隨著LNG價格達到創紀錄的水平，亞洲買家渴望新的合同來滿足激增的需求，為什么該地區的LNG回填項目沒有成為投資的首選呢？

王佳晶 摘譯自 伍德麥肯茲

原文如下：

The future of Asian LNG supply – backfill or bust

At the risk of sounding like a broken record, the outlook for Asian gas demand is overwhelmingly positive. Despite ongoing pandemic restrictions, sky-high spot prices and rising competition from renewables, the region’s gas consumption will grow at almost 3% a year over the next decade. Peak demand doesn’t feature in our base case until beyond 2050, while in our 2-degree Accelerated Energy Transition scenario (AET-2), more rapid decarbonisation barely impacts Asian gas demand by 2040.

Asia’s biggest gas market challenge is now meeting demand. The near-certain long-term decline in regional gas production makes rising import dependency inevitable, future-proofing future Asian LNG demand: we expect imports to grow at a heady 3.7% a year over the next decade. Today, China is driving demand growth, while looking further forward, Southeast Asia and South Asia become the fastest growing LNG markets in the world.

As Asian demand has climbed, new long-term LNG contracting rebounded to its highest level in five years in 2021, with Asian buyers accounting for 85% of global contracting. Much of this newly contracted supply will come from Qatar and the US, plugging the fast-growing gap between Asian gas demand and declining indigenous supply across much of the region.

Any previous assumptions that Asia Pacific’s undeveloped and yet-to-find gas resources will fill much of the region’s emerging supply-demand gap have been poleaxed by weak E&A activity and low commercial conversion rates. In his recent Insight on Asia’s looming gas supply crisis, my colleague Angus Rodger sees a downside scenario where chronic underinvestment across Asian upstream projects could require up to a whopping 240 mmtpa of additional LNG by 2040 – almost double our base case supply-demand gap of 275 mmtpa by this time.

With LNG prices at record levels and Asia’s buyers hungry for new contracts to meet surging demand, why aren’t the region’s LNG backfill projects first in line for investment?

For Asia Pacific’s LNG backfill opportunities, time is of essence

With several undeveloped LNG backfill opportunities across Asia Pacific yet to be developed, the window of opportunity risks closing. Woodside and Santos showed what can be done with last year’s FIDs on the Scarborough/Pluto T2 expansion and the Barossa gas project to backfill Darwin LNG. But for two of the region’s oldest and largest LNG projects, the North West Shelf (NWS) in Australia and Bontang in Indonesia, progress on up to 15 mmtpa of potential backfill supply remains painfully slow. Backfill options at both projects are not low cost and for both major decisions loom: prioritise backfill developments or start shutting in trains.

As my colleague Daniel Toleman in our APAC Gas & LNG team repeatedly tells me, “Against a backdrop of record-high LNG prices and strong regional gas demand, time is of the essence.”

North West Shelf and Bontang – fighting to stay full

The NWS needs new supply to keep its five trains full, with third-party deals signed to date only a stopgap. But while a ‘best case’ outcome could see around 10 mmtpa of output being supported through backfills, all options present their own challenges. Browse, a leading backfill contender, looks unlikely to be developed this decade given high costs, environmental concerns and misalignment in the joint venture. And with CO2 levels up to 12%, carbon capture and storage will be a necessity, adding complexity and cost to an already tough project.

Among other options, the Clio-Acme fields are more likely to be prioritised to backfill Chevron’s Wheatstone project, given the company’s decision to sell its NWS stake and focus instead on this early life, core operated project. Recent reserves reductions at Woodside’s Wheatstone supply fields could also help get Clio-Acme moving.

Indonesia’s legacy Bontang project continues to face major uncertainties around existing supply. With issues at Eni’s Merakes and PERTAMINA’s Offshore Mahakam, East Kalimantan (Attaka) and Sanga Sanga PSCs, customers are already being asked to expect cargo deferrals or cancellations this year.

Looking to remedy this, fiscal incentives granted in 2021 to fields like Offshore Mahakam, together with soaring prices, should help PERTAMINA increase backfill drilling. Fighting a severe decline at Mahakam, we expect PERTAMINA to offer farm-in opportunities in 2022.

Elsewhere, continuing production issues at Merakes could threaten Eni's plans to boost supply to Bontang by 2023. If challenges persist, Eni will have to choose between infill drilling on Jangkrik to arrest decline or bring forward future tie-ins.

An outcome on Chevron’s sale of its Indonesian Deepwater Development (IDD) must come soon. On the market since 2019, a deal is realistically needed this year for IDD’s gas to replace declining output at Bontang before the end of this decade. A lot remains to be done, including agreement on price, government approval on a PSC extension and authorisation of a new development plan. Do not hold your breath.

Elsewhere, a wildcard for 2022 would be the government of Papua New Guinea agreeing to a deal with the ExxonMobil-led P'nyang gas joint venture to bring the project back into the pipeline, putting PNG LNG Train 3 on the table once more.

Government support remains critical

There is little doubt that operators and partners want to push backfill projects forwards and cash in on Asian LNG demand – watching from the sidelines as competing projects sign valuable long-term contracts is not much fun. But developers risk missing out unless governments do more to incentivise backfill opportunities, including reviewing current upstream incentives and fiscal goals (Indonesia and PNG) and carbon capture (Australia).

Because upstream companies are set for a period of increased profitability, any efforts by government to improve terms or provide additional support are likely to be politically volatile. But the way things currently stand, Asia Pacific’s LNG backfills risk losing out to rivals like Qatar, Russia and the US unless local regimes compete harder for future investment dollars.

Driven by economic growth, pro-gas policies and decarbonisation, Asian gas demand growth looks future-proofed. Far less certain is the region’s ability to develop its own gas resources to help meet this demand. Rising import dependency is now inevitable, confirmed by current appetite for new long-term LNG contracting.

With LNG prices at record levels and Asia’s buyers hungry for new contracts to meet surging demand, why aren’t the region’s LNG backfill projects first in line for investment?